Todd VanderStelt is the Co-founder of MixShift, a firm that helps Amazon agencies, aggregators, and brands scale operations and reporting for their Amazon accounts. He is also the Managing Partner at Dash Applications, which delivers software to improve operations and sales for retailers and brands, and the Founder of TidalBore Group, a management consulting firm specializing in retail. Previously, Todd held leadership roles at Amazon, where he built forecasting tools and operational systems. 

Sam Hager is the Co-founder and CEO of MixShift. He began his career in the Amazon space, managing multimillion-dollar business books across advertising and agency services. Before MixShift, Sam was the Marketplace Strategist and Amazon Advertising Manager at Booyah Advertising.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:

• [1:15] How Todd VanderStelt and Sam Hager met and founded MixShift
• [3:45] Todd shares his forecasting background at Amazon and the origins of MixShift’s top-down model
• [7:43] How MixShift connects ad spend and revenue to guide forecasting decisions
• [10:30] The three key drivers of MixShift’s forecasting model: ad spend, seasonality, and organic trends
• [14:25] How historical data shapes forecasts and reveals insights from unexpected sales spikes
• [19:05] Integrating MixShift’s forecasting tools into inventory planning
• [22:30] Future developments for unit-level forecasting and customer acquisition modeling at MixShift

In this episode…

Forecasting in the Amazon ecosystem is one of the most frustrating challenges for brands and agencies. With so many shifting variables — from ad spend to competition to inventory fluctuations — how can companies predict sales and plan budgets without wasting resources or missing opportunities?

Amazon forecasting and automation veteran Todd VanderStelt and eCommerce strategist Sam Hager have developed a forecasting method for Amazon brands. They emphasize simplifying forecasting through a top-down model that uses a few key data inputs — ad spend, seasonality, and organic growth — to generate highly accurate predictions. Sam and Todd advise building forecasting tools that align teams around data, tie budgets directly to performance, and factor in real-world contexts, like promotions or unexpected press coverage, to make informed decisions.

In this episode of The Digital Deep Dive, Aaron Conant talks with Todd VanderStelt and Sam Hager, Co-founders of MixShift, about building accurate and actionable Amazon forecasting models. Together, they explain why top-down forecasting outperforms traditional methods, how linking ad spend to revenue improves planning, and the future innovations transforming eCommerce analytics.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Aaron Conant on LinkedIn
• BWG Connect
• Todd VanderStelt on LinkedIn 
• Sam Hager on LinkedIn 
• MixShift: Website | Forecasting Tool | Email | LinkedIn

Quotable Moments:

• “One of those things that hasn't changed is forecasting — is still a really hard thing to do.”
• “We were trying to solve our own problems, frankly, and got pulled into a lot of those data problems.”
• “If you can identify the key inputs that drive your forecast, you can basically aggregate all those errors.”
• “There's this trade-off of profitability and revenue that we're always kind of faced with as operators.”
• “You can't actually isolate the impact of advertising on your revenue without separating out these pieces.”

Action Steps:

1. Build forecasting models from the top down: Starting with total revenue and spend data reduces complexity and improves accuracy across large catalogs. This approach helps teams make confident, data-driven decisions even with incomplete SKU-level data.
2. Connect ad spend directly to revenue outcomes: Understanding the relationship between marketing investments and sales allows for smarter budgeting and realistic growth goals. It ensures spending aligns with actual performance rather than assumptions.
3. Incorporate qualitative insights into quantitative models: Adding context like promotions or media exposure helps refine forecasts and explain unexpected sales spikes. This balance of data and human insight strengthens decision-making across teams.
4. Use historical data for trend recognition: Analyzing at least two years of sales and spend history reveals reliable seasonality and organic growth trends. These patterns guide strategic planning and help brands anticipate market shifts.
5. Continuously validate and adjust models: Monitoring forecast accuracy over time ensures the model evolves with changing business conditions. Regular refinement keeps predictions relevant and actionable for leadership and operations.

About BWG Connect...

BWG Connect provides executive strategy and networking sessions that help brands from any industry with their overall business planning and execution. We network and knowledge share together to better understand and adapt to the newest trends, strategies, and pain points shaping growth in the digital space. BWG Connect, in conjunction with BWG Strategy, has built an exclusive network of 125,000+ senior professionals and hosts over 2,000 virtual and in-person networking events on an annual basis.

In addition, we have had 1x1 conversations with over 5,000 brands and have a real-time pulse on what digital strategies are successful and why. This in-depth knowledge allows our team to operate on the cutting-edge and provide our clients with best-in-class guidance on how to win in the digital world. We have provided free consultations and strategy sessions for companies of all sizes, from start-ups to Fortune-100, to enable growth, resolve issues and make curated service provider introductions that can impact your digital footprint.

We have held to the philosophy of providing high-level insights and actionable knowledge with no sales pitches in order to provide to our network the ability to listen, learn and act to improve themselves as well as their organizations. Our ultimate goal is to be the resource out there to help digital executives find the research they need to excel in the modern marketplace.

If you are interested in getting involved with any of our current or past events, you can find them here. If you are looking for help & would like to set up some time to chat with our team, you can schedule a time or reach out directly to Aaron@bwgconnect.com or Tiffany@bwgconnect.com.